Climate change makes November heat five times more likely in parts of South Africa

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An analysis by Climate Central shows that human-caused climate change has made this week's extreme November heat in parts of South Africa up to five times…

Climate change has made the unusually intense November heat forecast across parts of South Africa this week at least five times more likely in some areas, according to an analysis by climate science organisation Climate Central.

The analysis, using its Climate Shift Index, found that climate change had significantly increased the likelihood of extreme heat forecast across the country between 10 and 13 November.

The index reached its highest level, five, in Upington, Bloemfontein and Rustenburg, indicating that climate change had made the extreme heat at least five times more likely in these cities.

About 26 million people across South Africa were expected to experience at least one day of extreme heat with a Climate Shift Index of three or higher during the four days, it said.

More than 660 000km², or about 54% of the country’s land area, was forecast to experience at least one day of unusually high temperatures made at least three times more likely by human-caused climate change, the analysis found.

The analysis cited the warning by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) this week that a heatwave, with persistently high temperatures, was expected in North West, most of the Free State, southern Gauteng and the north-eastern parts of the Northern Cape until Friday.

The SAWS said extremely high fire danger conditions were also expected across the Northern Cape, the eastern parts of North West and Free State, the north-eastern parts of the Western Cape, parts of Limpopo’s south-western Bushveld and several Eastern Cape municipalities, including Dr Beyers Naudé, Inxuba Yethemba and Walter Sisulu.

Temperatures of 36°C to 40°C were forecast in parts of the Northern Cape’s Namakwa district and the Western Cape interior, between 6°C and 10°C above normal for this time of year.

South Africa’s hot November conditions were also unfolding during the seasonal transition from spring to summer, when temperatures rose ahead of the arrival of sufficient atmospheric moisture to support…

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