Global carbon emissions may have peaked in 2026 – but only time will tell

ملخص مفصل

A new report suggests the world is burning fewer fossil fuels, potentially due to international conflicts and surging energy prices.

A new report suggests this year, carbon emissions may begin to trend downward for the first time.

But it’s important to take this with a grain of salt. While news reports have hailed this event, it will take years to confirm it wasn’t just a blip caused by the US-Iran war.

Carbon emissions are produced by the burning of coal, gas and oil in power stations, factories, vehicles and heating systems across the globe. To avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change, the world must reach net zero emissions by mid-century. Worryingly, research shows CO₂ emissions have been on an upward trajectory for most of the industrial age, with 50% of all emissions produced since 1990.

The Global Carbon Project collects data on fossil fuel emissions, as well as how much carbon is being absorbed and released by oceans, forests, grasslands and soils. This week it released its 2026 report, just as world leaders are gathering in Turkey, also known as Türkiye, for the COP31 climate conference.

It’s a momentous read if its central finding – that CO₂ emissions are now on the decline – proves true. After all, similar claims were made back in 2024.

The new report shows emissions from fossil fuels are set to fall slightly, from 38.4 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2025 to a projected 38.2 Gt. That’s a very modest decrease of 0.4%.

One key factor is the ongoing energy crisis, triggered by the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Both conflicts have disrupted a significant portion of the world’s energy supply, in particular oil. Crude oil prices have surged from around US$60 (A$87) a barrel at the start of 2026 to the current figure of US$100 (A$145) a barrel.

In Australia, the average cost of petrol increased from 175 cents per litre to about 240c/L in October, and diesel prices from 186c/L to around 280c/L. Even at the low end of these prices, running an electric vehicle would save a typical Australian driver roughly A$2000 each year.

مطلع المقال، مقتطف من The Conversation AU. لقراءة المقال كاملًا، افتحه على موقع الناشر.