With two weeks to go, the Victorian election is the Coalition’s to lose

Résumé détaillé

The campaign so far has been rough for Labor. One Nation is also having a bumpy ride.

As the Victorian election campaign enters its final fortnight, polling points to the strong likelihood of a change of government on November 28.

The Coalition, led by Jess Wilson, came into the campaign with a significant lead and it has since further strengthened its position. Polling published in the Australian Financial Review late last week had the Coalition well ahead with 31% of the vote, Labor on 23% and One Nation on 22%, while the Greens were on 15%.

The two-party preferred vote between the Coalition and Labor was 57-43 in the Coalition’s favour. Although there are small differences, other recent polls point in a similar direction.

How this will translate into seats in parliament is more complex than usual because of the low primary vote of both major parties and the high numbers for One Nation and the Greens. There are many seats that are likely to be three or four cornered contests, the results for which can be hard to predict.

But the campaign so far has brought the playing field into clearer focus, with each party facing their own challenges and opportunities.

The campaign has been difficult for Labor. Three terms in office, corruption allegations resulting in a royal commission into the construction industry, and cost-of-living pressures meant it went into the campaign well behind in the polls.

It has been unable to make up the ground and has fallen further behind the Coalition.

Combined with the Liberals agreeing to a preference deal with One Nation, there are predictions Labor could be reduced to a “rump” in parliament.

The change in leadership from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll in July has made it hard for the government to run on its record. Some of its traditional strengths – infrastructure and industrial relations – are shaky territory because of the royal commission. A number of unions have also criticised the government.

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