The ASEAN Paradox

Résumé détaillé

BANGKOK—When Southeast Asia’s leaders link arms for their customary family photo at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit in Manila ...

BANGKOK—When Southeast Asia’s leaders link arms for their customary family photo at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit in Manila on November 16–18, the show of unity will belie the fact that, on the eve of the organization’s 60th anniversary, the group is more divided and less effective than ever. Amid a fracturing global order, ASEAN has a choice: turn its convening authority into concerted action or be reduced to an arena for great-power rivalry.

The fault lines are numerous. Indonesia’s wildfire haze has choked Singapore and Malaysia in recent months. Thailand and Cambodia fought border skirmishes that came close to outright war last year. Myanmar is led by a putschist-turned-president who wants his seat back at the leaders’ table. And the Philippines, the summit’s host, is locked in a standoff with China that most of its neighbors would rather avoid.

And yet Southeast Asia needs ASEAN more than ever because it gives member countries visibility and a voice on the global stage.

To be sure, ASEAN is not in danger of collapse. The risk is subtler. Each fissure exposes an institutional shortcoming. On Myanmar, it is enforcement: Min Aung Hlaing, the general who ousted and detained the democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, signed ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus in April of that year, only to disregard it. The group responded by barring the junta leader from attending ASEAN summits.

But after winning Myanmar’s military-organized elections—with voting confined to junta-controlled areas, excluding large swaths of the country—in December and January, Min Aung Hlaing swapped his general’s uniform for civilian garb in April. Hard-headed realpolitik compelled China and India to recognize him, while half of ASEAN members, led by Thailand, have also now officially received him, amounting to de facto normalization.

Likewise, the Thai-Cambodian conflict has exposed the limits of ASEAN’s much-touted capacity to sustain peace.

Meanwhile, tensions in the South…

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