No Retreat, No Add Vance

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No Retreat, No Add Vance By Michael Every of RabobankIt’s Friday the 13th, traditionally a day when bad things happen - so far we have bad omens; not just a spike in JGB and…

It’s Friday the 13th, traditionally a day when bad things happen - so far we have bad omens; not just a spike in JGB and Australian bond yields this morning, but that Microsoft Outlook and Teams are both down, so I don’t know who will be able to read this.

The US has decided it can’t reach a deal to end the Ukraine war without Europe, yet the Ukrainian press says, ‘Europe wants a seat at the table with Russia. It can't agree on who gets it.’

That only seems to leave escalation, the questions being how soon and to what level.

In the Middle East, things look little better. Yemen's Houthis attacked a pumping station on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline again, underlining that key energy infrastructure remains a target – yet oil doesn’t seem too excited about all the above yet with Brent at $95 at time of writing. Indeed, some see the market having adapted to the level of physical disruption in Hormuz. A former Iranian regime journalist claims the UAE is now buying Gulf oil at a $30 discount, then shuttling it via Oman for large enough profits to offset the security costs.

Trump said no deal is needed with Iran now and shut-down Vice-President Vance negotiations with Tehran. This was a clear public put-down of Vance, widely seen to have started to use the unpopular Iran War as a 2028 election issue favouring himself, as well as to Iran. While Trump said Gulf allies had urged him to pause Iran strikes, which he has agreed to for now, he added he’d renew military strikes against Iran “without hesitation” if needed – and would consider it a defeat if the Iranian regime were still in power by end of his term.

In Israel, caretaker PM Netanyahu and PM candidate Eisenkot held their first security briefing, the latter reportedly told that the IDF sees no urgent need to strike Iran; then again, another report from Israel’s Kan news says the US has informed the IDF to prepare for war ahead.

If there are no negotiations, regime-change aspirations, and military and nuclear…

Nvidia’s…

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