Dollar set for best week in two months, yen tests 160

Résumé détaillé

GDANSK, Nov 13 : The dollar held near 19-month highs on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly rise in two months as bets on a larger rate hike pushed up US yields and the yen hovered below the 160 mark, prompting Tokyo to warn it would respond to excessive moves.

Treasury yields rose after President Donald Trump's comment that the US did not need a deal with Iran stoked worries about Middle Eastern oil supply, lifting crude prices and, with them, inflation expectations.

The move, together with hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and this week's stronger-than-expected US inflation data, has left traders weighing the prospect of a larger-than-usual Fed rate hike next month.

Two-year Treasury yields have risen 33 basis points so far this week to around 4.85 per cent, on course for their biggest weekly jump since 2024.

The biggest risk to dollar strength is a Middle East peace deal, said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, as that would diminish the support it draws from high energy prices and its safe-haven status.

"Absent that happening, we think the dollar is likely to continue to at least remain around current levels if not strengthen slightly as we look ahead," Rees said.

The euro edged up 0.1 per cent to $1.1065, after hitting its lowest level against the dollar since April 2025. For the week, it is down 0.7 per cent, on track for its largest weekly loss since late September.

Fed officials this week warned that US inflation remains stubbornly elevated, with some signalling openness to a 50-basis-point rate increase if price pressures fail to ease. Traders are pricing in a 12.1 per cent chance of such a hike next month, up from 0 per cent last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was at 103.17, near its highest since April 2025. For the week, the dollar is set to gain 0.9 per cent, the most since September.

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