Hawke’s Bay El Niño: Drier summer conditions can still bring heavy rain

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A Hawke’s Bay council says the incoming El Niño weather system points to drier conditions, but that doesn’t mean the area shouldn’t expect heavy rain. Hawke’s Bay Regional Council…

A rain shower over Hastings, seen from Te Mata Peak in 2019. Photo / Warren Buckland

A Hawke’s Bay council says the incoming El Niño weather system points to drier conditions, but that doesn’t mean the area shouldn’t expect heavy rain.

Hawke’s Bay Regional Council (HBRC) said that, between July and October, Hawke’s Bay received about 77% of its expected rainfall.

Earth Science New Zealand said October temperatures were between 0.51C and 1.2C above average for much of the North Island, and generally near average for coastal Hawke’s Bay.

But in a social media post, HBRC said there was another part of the story.

Over the past years, wetter summer months helped to make up some of that rainfall shortage in the region.

During an El Niño weather pattern, HBRC scientists did not expect to see the same amount of summer rain, but stressed that did not mean it wouldn’t rain at all.

In its social media post, HBRC said El Niño wasn’t a weather forecast for a particular day or week, but a much bigger climate pattern that helped scientists to understand what conditions were more likely over a season.

Rainfall over the coming month would influence rivers, groundwater, soil moisture and water available across the region.

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