Why risk management could define the Middle East’s energy future

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Need for a dynamic approach to risk management built on real-time operations, supply data This was meant to be the decade of energy transition. Yet mid-decade, the UAE has scaled…

Need for a dynamic approach to risk management built on real-time operations, supply data

This was meant to be the decade of energy transition. Yet mid-decade, the UAE has scaled ahead with its clean energy ambitions while navigating how to keep energy supplies reliable amidst growing demand. In Dubai, the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park has reached a production capacity of 3,860 MW, with plans to exceed 8,000 MW by 2030. Through its Energy Strategy 2050, the country is progressing towards a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.

However, the shift has been no clean sweep, with the Middle East’s energy sector facing disruptions from cyber threats to geopolitical uncertainty. These pressures are making operations more complex and testing how quickly integrated energy portfolios can respond to change.

Spending on upstream and LNG is expected to cross $1 trillion in 2026, according to the IEA. But even as the sector extends hydrocarbon supply into the next decade, it is under increasing pressure to decarbonize both operations and products.

Meeting long-term energy goals, including the UAE’s targets for reducing energy demand and strengthening supply security under its National Energy and Water Demand Management Programme 2050, depends on how well energy portfolios adapt to changing conditions. As parts of the system are taken offline without warning and energy system reliability and resilience come under pressure, risk assessments are becoming an everyday necessity.

What’s changed is that risk has moved down the pipeline, from planning and annual outlooks into everyday operations. As a result, accounting for these constraints and how the business model may change is now more necessary than ever.

That’s where dynamic risk management comes in. Less a piece of software than a way of decision-making using the same facts, dynamic risk management treats uncertainty as the new normal, using industrial data and artificial intelligence (AI) to track and act on threats…

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