Brent Crude Climbs Back Above $96 as Iran Tensions Escalate

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Oil prices bounced back in early trading on Friday as geopolitical risk returns and optimism surrounding potential peace deals fades. Friday, November 6, 2026The initial days of…

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Oil prices bounced back in early trading on Friday as geopolitical risk returns and optimism surrounding potential peace deals fades.

The initial days of the US’ post-midterms price collapse are gradually making way for a return to the pre-November status quo, with President Trump insinuating that he ‘doesn’t need a deal with Iran’ amidst intensifying Israeli pressure to resume military strikes against Tehran. A worsening outlook for any peaceful settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as several Houthi strikes on Saudi pumping stations, has pushed ICE Brent back to $96 per barrel, casting a shadow on the IEA’s hopes for a supply glut in Q4 2026.

OPEC Bets on a Dramatic Demand Rebound in 2027. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) kept its 2026 demand growth forecast steady at 180,000 b/d, whilst ramping up its 2027 rise in global consumption to 2.55 million b/d, despite weakening Chinese demand and rising non-OPEC supply.

Saudi Output Surges to Pre-War Levels Yet Cannot Be Seen. The Saudi Energy Ministry reported a 26% month-on-month jump in its oil production to 10.56 million b/d last month; however, its supply to the market was only 9.2 million b/d—suggesting Saudi Aramco puts some 40 million barrels into inventories.

Libya Turns to LNG as Domestic Gas Falls Short. The Libyan government is considering launching a floating LNG regasification unit from summer 2027 to replace costly diesel in power generation, as the country’s 1.2 BCf/d domestic gas production is insufficient to meet rising industrial demand.

White House Poised to Extend Jones Act Relief. The Trump administration is reportedly seeking to extend a waiver on the Jones Act, running out on November 15, planning to issue case-by-case waivers that would let more foreign tankers move commodities between US ports, easing…

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