Duncan Garner: John Key and Helen Clark need to butt out and let today’s politicians get on with it

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Speaking out of turn? Former prime ministers Helen Clark and Sir John Key. Photos / Getty Images

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There is a time for former prime ministers to speak up and there is a time to shut up.

John Key and Helen Clark both decided this election was their moment to intervene in the vote-splitting debate. I reckon both of them should have kept their mouths shut.

Both were incredibly astute in office, their judgement was shrewd, they rarely got it wrong. This time, however, they made basic errors about the very thing they understand better than most: the numbers.

I covered Key closely when was the political editor at 3 News. He was a sharp politician who lived and breathed numbers, and his instincts were as good as anyone’s. He knows how elections work. He understands the game, the players and the psychology of voters.

But this time his political maths was wrong. He got suckered into trying to save a few mates, like Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop, rather than backing a strategy that made sense. The strategy Key opposed was the vote-splitting one promoted by rich-lister Harry Mowbray and former National and Act leader Don Brash: vote for National in the electorates but give Act or NZ First your party vote.

Key instead pushed for a strong National-led coalition. The confusion he brought to the debate by saying vote-splitting was “the opposite of clever” was the least clever thing I’ve heard him say.

The preliminary results show National winning 42 electorate seats while receiving just 29.21% of the party vote. As a result, 700,000 National voters gave their party vote to National and it was irrelevant, they didn’t get a single extra MP.

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