How Novig became the third biggest prediction market site despite launching only months ago

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Aided by a Sydney Sweeney ad, Novig’s monthly volume jumped 80% to $1.8 billion. What would it take to catch Kalshi?

Since bursting on the scene two years ago, prediction markets have become one of the buzziest new sectors in finance, pulling in billions of dollars in revenue, and driving daily news headlines. The young industry is dominated by two giants, Kalshi and Polymarket, but numerous other companies are trying to muscle into the field. That includes the sports-focused prediction market Novig, which only launched as a federally regulated prediction market in August, but has already claimed the number three spot by one widely used industry metric.

Novig’s ascent is notable given how little money it has raised compared to other prediction markets. Founded in 2021, the company enjoyed modest growth and raised $30 million as it pursued a sweepstakes-based business model that allowed it to operate in certain states. But a shift in the legal landscape led Novig this year to become a federally regulated prediction market, helping it raise a new $75 million Series B round in February at a $500 million valuation. The company is also reportedly raising a new round of capital at a $2 billion valuation, though Novig declined to comment on future fundraises.

While Novig has raised $105 million in total, that figure is dwarfed by Kalshi’s fundraising, which amounts to roughly $3.8 billion across 13 funding rounds, according to Tracxn data, including two $1 billion rounds since May. Polymarket, meanwhile, has raised roughly $3.3 billion across eight rounds, including $1 billion from New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange, and another $1 billion in a round led by Donald Trump Jr.-backed venture capital firm 1789 Capital.

“There are very few companies I think outside of AI that have achieved our level of growth in the span of two months,” Novig cofounder and CEO Jacob Fortinsky told Fortune.

Novig’s explosive growth, which has seen it swell from 20 to 100 employees this year, is due in no small part to Sydney Sweeney.

Novig’s early success comes at a time when conventional…

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