Goldman Sachs’ calm 2027 forecast comes with a catch

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Goldman Sachs sees steady growth and cooler prices ahead, but its economists warn the real test may land where many Americans keep their savings.

Gas has dropped below $4 a gallon for the first time since July, according to AAA. Cheaper energy is a big reason Goldman Sachs expects a calm year for the economy in 2027.

The bank's economists see the global economy growing 2.8% next year, according to a Goldman Sachs research note shared with TheStreet. They call that pace "solid but unremarkable," with lower oil prices and heavy spending on artificial intelligence doing most of the work.

The catch sits in the report's own title, "Macro Outlook 2027: Steady Baseline, Downside Risks." Goldman says the risks to its forecast are "tilted to the downside." Its biggest uncertainty is the AI spending cycle, which it says poses more risk to the stock market than to the economy.

Also read: Goldman Sachs sees a new problem emerging for the Federal Reserve

That matters for anyone with a 401(k). The AI boom has shaped stock returns far more than everyday life.

AI spending is the main growth engine Goldman does not expect to change next year. The firm forecasts global AI investment will climb to $1.8 trillion in 2027 from $1.1 trillion this year.

The payoff, however, has landed unevenly. Goldman estimates cloud giants and AI infrastructure companies delivered 62% of S&P 500 earnings growth. AI added only about a fifth of U.S. economic growth, by the bank's math.

S&P 500 profits now sit at a record share of the economy, the note shows. The key question, Goldman says, is how much of that surge lasts once the investment wave fades.

That question is getting harder to ignore as the boom's growth nears its peak.

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