Nvidia Loses $903 Billion Lead Over Apple

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Apple is favored to end 2026 as the world's most valuable company after Nvidia's sell-off. Here's how their market caps and Polymarket odds have shifted.

Apple's stock has risen 4.5% since October 6. Its probability of finishing the year as the world's most valuable public company has climbed from 8% to 83% on Polymarket in that span. The stock has done well. Not that well.

Monday's tech rally was the Wall Street equivalent of the Ewing Theory: the Nasdaq surged 2.7% as Nvidia fell 4.3% and shed $190 billion in market value. The sell-off came one day after Nvidia's board announced it was opening an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a suspected Chinese spy and amid a broader retreat from AI stocks. Nvidia has now lost roughly $1.5 trillion in market value over the past 24 trading sessions through Monday, a record loss in such a span for any U.S. company, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Apple and Nvidia have seen a nearly $1.7 trillion reversal in their relative market values over the past 24 trading sessions. Now prediction-market traders think Nvidia, which was priced as a near shoo-in to finish the year as the world's most valuable company five weeks ago, might not be done sliding down the market-cap rankings.

Below are the odds for which company will be the largest at the end of 2026, per Polymarket.

This market opened on November 12, 2025. Nvidia had been favored to finish 2026 as the world's largest company by market capitalization on 355 of 358 days through November 4, including on every day from February 6 to November 4.

After closing at an all-time high of $239.24 on October 6, Nvidia had an 89% chance of finishing the year on top.

The New York Times reported on October 29 that Huang was "seen as a target of a potential Chinese spy plot." Apple overtook Nvidia as the world's most valuable company the next day, with Bloomberg reporting that investors are seeking "the perceived safety of the iPhone maker amid concerns about artificial intelligence spending." Traders responded to the shifting valuations but still favored Nvidia at 54% over Apple at 43%.

The past two weeks brought the kind of…

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