Bharti Airtel gets ₹2,400 target from Motilal Oswal on expected tariff hike

Résumé détaillé

Siddhartha Khemka, Motilal Oswal Financial Services sees further upside in Bharti Airtel on a potential tariff hike and premiumisation, while NSE remains a long-term play on India's growing capital markets.

Bharti Airtel is positioned for further upside with a target price of ₹2,400, driven by an anticipated 10-15% industry-wide tariff hike by December or January, according to Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. The telecom major's premiumisation-led growth strategy has already yielded continuous expansion in average revenue per user (ARPU).

A broader industry transition is expected to support this trajectory without relying on frequent rate increases. "Overall, what we see is that there is a shift in the industry towards consumption-led pricing, which would sustain the long-term ARPU growth," Khemka said.

Airtel's capital allocation priorities—specifically investments in its fiber transport backbone and data centers—are also projected to generate robust free cash flow and improve return ratios.

Beyond telecommunications, the brokerage maintains a structurally positive outlook on India's broader capital market theme, highlighting the National Stock Exchange (NSE) as a primary proxy for this growth. While BSE is expected to see a sharper near-term volume recovery, making it a preferred immediate play, NSE remains a strong long-term compounding story with a target price of ₹2,300.

The country's largest exchange commands a dominant competitive moat, holding a 93% market share in the cash segment, 99.8% in equity futures, and 75% in options. Favourable cash modifications taking effect from December are anticipated to support a recovery in derivatives volumes. Long-term growth is further underpinned by rising demat account penetration, digital onboarding, and increased participation from younger investors.

To strengthen earnings visibility, the exchange is diversifying into non-transaction recurring income streams, including colocation, data feeds, and clearing services. This operating leverage is forecast to deliver a steady 13% to 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings, with similar returns expected for the stock price.

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