June inflation likely eased for second month in a row — poll

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PHILIPPINE INFLATION likely eased for a second straight month to a three-month low in June as lower oil and rice prices offset higher electricity rates, analysts said. A…

PHILIPPINE INFLATION likely eased for a second straight month to a three-month low in June as lower oil and rice prices offset higher electricity rates, analysts said.

A BusinessWorld poll of 18 analysts yielded a median estimate of 6.6% for June inflation, slower than 6.8% in May but faster than 1.4% a year ago.

This falls within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 6%-7% projection for the month.

If the median estimate holds true, this would be the second month in a row that inflation cooled. It would also be the slowest headline print in three months or since the 4.1% in March.

However, June may also mark the fourth consecutive month that it breached the central bank’s 2%-4% target.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the June inflation report on Tuesday (July 7).

Radhika Rao, a senior economist at DBS Group Research, said the headline print likely cooled to 6.6% amid lower global and domestic energy prices as well as cheaper key food items.

“We expect Philippines’ inflation to moderate to 6.6% (year on year) in June 2026 from 6.8% in May, but stay above the 2-4% policy target,” she said. “Price pressures likely slowed on the back of a decline in global oil benchmarks (consequently domestic pump prices) and easing food (rice, meat, etc.).”

In June, global oil prices eased below the $100-per-barrel level seen during the height of the Middle East war. It dropped by 21% from 19% in May, marking the steepest monthly decline since the 55% seen in March 2020, according to Reuters.

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