Zip shares: I researched the bull and bear case, and one side won me over

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Is the BNPL stock finally on an upward trajectory, or are the headwinds too strong to overcome? The post Zip shares: I researched the bull and bear case, and one side won me over…

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) shares have had a volatile run so far in 2026, bouncing between a high of $3.56 in January, and a low of $1.38 in March.

At the time of writing, the shares are down around 36% for the year-to-date, at $2.13 apiece.

The buy now, pay later (BNPL) provider's shares have faced headwinds from margin pressure concerns, an unexpected fraud incident, and inflation concerns.

What's interesting is that, while Zip's profitability is increasingly being challenged, it continues to report top-line growth.

It looks like the experts are confident that we'll see much more upside ahead out of the shares, but investors aren't convinced.

So I decided to investigate both the bull and bear cases for Zip shares, and see which side wins me over.

The bull case for Zip shares centres around the company's vast US scale, its ongoing profitability, and modest valuation.

Zip's US business is a key driver of growth and contributes significantly to the company's financial performance.

As part of its first-quarter FY27 result last month, Zip reported that its total transaction volume (TTV) grew to $4.6 billion (up 18.0% versus the previous quarter). TTV in the US accounted for $3.63 billion (up 24%) of that $4.6 billion total while its Australia business makes up the final $952.4 million.

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