The economic recovery that doesn't feel like one

Résumé détaillé

New Zealand's economy is improving, but it doesn't feel like it for everyone, the country's biggest bank says.

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New Zealand's economy is improving, but it doesn't feel like it for everyone, the country's biggest bank says.

It said the economy was being buffeted by several cyclical and structural forces that were hard to unpick, alongside an oil price shock.

"The good news is that the recovery remains intact for now. GDP has now grown for four consecutive quarters, including a better-than-feared 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter in Q2 that lifted annual growth to 2.6 percent."

But it said not everyone was experiencing the benefit - the unemployment rate is higher than it has been for more than a decade and inflation risks are concerning the Reserve Bank.

Senior economist Miles Workman said growth was being led by pockets of the economy such as manufacturing, and the tradable sector.

"Meat, dairy and international tourism exports are benefiting from robust demand and the low NZD. Monthly short-term visitor arrivals have finally recovered to around their 2019 level and with the weak NZD boosting visitors' spending power and airline capacity up meaningfully, the coming summer could be among our strongest tourism seasons."

He said the low New Zealand dollar was probably also giving the manufacturing sector a competitive advantage.

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