Oil returns to surplus as Gulf exports rebound through wartime disruptions

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Oil supplies overtook consumption by almost 2 million barrels per day in October, according to data from the International Energy Agency released Friday.

Global oil supply exceeded demand in October for the first time since the US and Israel went to war with Iran in February, with a rebound in Gulf crude exports driving the shift.

What happened: The world's oil supply exceeded demand by nearly 2 million barrels per day in October, according to data from the International Energy Agency released in a report on Friday. Supply rose by 2.3 million bpd from September to 105.4 million bpd, while high fuel prices and disruptions to Gulf exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas continued to weigh on demand.

Gulf oil exports, excluding Oman, reached 18.4 million bpd in October, still 26% below prewar levels, according to the Paris-based agency. Crude led the recovery, with October shipments reaching 15 million bpd, 82% of their prewar level.

The IEA raised its fourth-quarter global supply forecast by 3.3 million bpd and expects the market to remain in surplus for the quarter as a whole.

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