Ray Dalio Keeps Telling Investors to Hold Gold. Gold Just Lost 28% From Its Record. Here’s His Rule for a 66-Year-Old With $800,000 in an IRA and $2,800 a Month in Social ...

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Ray Dalio keeps telling investors to hold 10% to 15% of their money in gold, and gold just closed at a one-year low, 28% below its January record. Here is his rule for a 66-year-old with $800,000 in an IRA and $2,800 a month from Social Security: what $80,000 to $120,000 in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) cost this year, what it would have saved in 2008 and 2022, the $430 a month of Treasury interest it gives up, and the tax…

Ray Dalio has told investors, over and over, to keep 10% to 15% of their money in gold, and this week the Treasury reported that Washington ran a $404 billion deficit in October, the largest October shortfall on record, spending about $2.10 for every dollar it collected. Here is what that rule means for a 66-year-old with $800,000 in an IRA and $2,800 a month from Social Security, on the weekend gold handed the rule its first hard test in years. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest fund that holds gold bullion, closed Thursday at its lowest price in more than a year and finished the week down 4.6%, its worst week since June.

For many Americans, funding a 401(k) only leads to more retirement questions. Should you roll your 401k into an IRA, and when? What's the tax impact if the rollover check gets made out to the wrong name? When do required withdrawals begin, and how much do you have to take?

Dalio has not changed his mind. The Bridgewater Associates founder wrote on X in August that a portfolio should hold "maybe 10-15 percent" in gold and underweight bonds, because a U.S. debt crisis could arrive within five years. On the Money Rehab podcast last November he put it this way: "If you have a traditional portfolio and you have about 10 or 15% in gold and that kind of bad time happens, you'll be well diversified."

The retiree stopped working this spring, keeps the $800,000 in a traditional IRA, and has to decide this weekend whether a sleeve of gold belongs in that account at all. Gold's fall reads as a test of Dalio's rule rather than a verdict on it: he makes the case for gold as insurance against a debt crisis, and insurance costs money in the years nothing burns. In plain terms, the sleeve is a bet that Washington's debt problem lands on bonds and the dollar, and that gold holds its value when they do not. Its limit is just as plain: a sleeve that lost 28% in ten months is a real loss for a retiree who has to sell shares to live, however the next decade turns out.

War…

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