Nations Championship permutations: What does Ireland need to reach the inaugural grand final at Twickenham?

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With one round remaining in the inaugural Nations Championship, five teams – Ireland, France, England, South Africa and New Zealand – are in the running to reach the grand final…

With one round remaining in the inaugural Nations Championship, five teams – Ireland, France, England, South Africa and New Zealand – are in the running to reach the grand final on Sunday, November 29th in Twickenham.

When next weekend’s games are wrapped up, the top-ranked team from the northern hemisphere group will meet their counterparts from the southern hemisphere group to determine who claims the first Nations Championship title.

All 12 teams in the competition will take part in the finals weekend in London, with each nation facing the team that finished in their corresponding position in the other hemisphere group. The two first-placed sides vie for the title, while the two second-place teams will face off in a third-place playoff, the two third-place teams will contest a fifth-place playoff, and so on.

In the northern hemisphere group, France lead the standings on 21 points, with England second on 20 points. Ireland are third, also on 20 points but behind Steve Borthwick’s side on scoring difference.

England are in action first on Saturday, welcoming New Zealand to Twickenham (kick-off 2.10pm) before Ireland face the Springboks at the Aviva (4.40pm) and France play Argentina (8.10pm Irish time).

With their one-point advantage, France are in the driving seat. If Fabien Galthié’s side beat the Pumas with a bonus point, the place in the grand final is theirs regardless of how Ireland or England fare. France, playing last in the day, will also have the benefit of knowing exactly what is required to finish top of the group based on the results in London and Dublin.

In short, for Ireland to reach the grand final, they must hope both France and England slip up.

Firstly, England have a considerable advantage on scoring difference (plus 134 to Ireland’s plus 57), so if Ireland only manage the same league points (as opposed to scored points) haul as England, they’re unlikely to overtake them as Farrell’s team also have to overturn that scoring difference deficit –…

So, for…

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