$5,000 to invest? Treasury Wine shares could be dirt cheap

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Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares have been under pressure, but could a turnaround be taking shape? Here's why I'm considering buying.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares have been through a difficult period, and investors have plenty of reasons to be cautious.

However, with the shares trading at around $6.44 at the time of writing, I think an opportunity may be emerging.

And if I had $5,000 to invest, this is one ASX share I'd be taking a closer look at. Here's why.

Treasury Wine is behind some of Australia's best-known wine brands, including Penfolds, Wolf Blass, and Wynns.

However, the company has faced considerable challenges in two of its most important markets.

In China, weaker demand for luxury wines and problems with parallel imports have disrupted sales. Meanwhile, the collapse of a major US distributor, combined with difficult conditions in the American wine market, has put significant pressure on its operations.

The impact has been severe. In FY26, Treasury Wine's underlying operating earnings fell 36% to $492 million, while the company recorded substantial asset impairments.

I can understand why investors lost confidence. But I think there's a reasonable case for believing the worst could be behind the business.

One reason is that Treasury Wine still owns some excellent brands, especially Penfolds.

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