Trump squandered his Hispanic edge — now Republicans must earn it back

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In 2024, Republicans made a historic breakthrough with Hispanic voters as Donald Trump captured 43% of the Latino vote — up from 35% in 2020. But in this year’s midterms, those…

In 2024, Republicans made a historic breakthrough with Hispanic voters as Donald Trump captured 43% of the Latino vote — up from 35% in 2020.

But in this year’s midterms, those gains and more evaporated: Only about a third of Hispanic voters backed GOP House candidates, reverting to their pre-2024 patterns.

Republicans must ask themselves how to win back the hearts and minds of the Hispanic voters who propelled Trump into the White House.

Republicans read the 2024 vote to mean lasting, undying loyalty — while misunderstanding the thin line that separates legal and illegal immigration within Latino communities.

They interpreted genuine Hispanic support for strong border enforcement as support for heavy-handed policies that impacted legal and illegal immigrants alike.

Take Texas, where Democrats captured the governor’s office and a US Senate seat in a state Trump carried comfortably just two years ago.

In heavily Hispanic border counties, where ICE presence has sharply increased over the past two years, the shift was especially stark: Cameron County, for example, gave Trump 52.5% of its vote in 2024, but Democrat James Talarico took 68.4% there in his Senate victory.

Florida provides another example: Miami-Dade County, with its strong Latino population, gave Trump 55.2% of its vote in 2024 — but this year, Democratic Senate candidate Angie Nixon carried it with 53%, leaving Republican Ashley Moody with only 46%.

Among Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024, his approval fell from 93% at the start of his second term to 57% just before the midterms.

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