World faces 'irrecoverable overshoot' on warming - report

Résumé détaillé

The world is heading for an "irrecoverable overshoot" on dangerous warming unless governments reject fossil fuels and start rapidly cutting emissions, a report has warned.

The world is heading for an "irrecoverable overshoot" on dangerous warming unless governments reject fossil fuels and start rapidly cutting emissions, a report has warned.

The latest update from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) initiative, released as countries meet for COP31, United Nations climate talks in Turkey, warns that collective climate action has stalled for the fifth consecutive year.

There are positive signs, with clean electricity meeting all additional global demand for power in 2025, China and India deploying renewables at a record pace, electric vehicle roll out reaching new highs, and deforestation in the Amazon falling sharply.

However, the report warns that progress on deploying alternatives to fossil fuels - which cause most of the greenhouse gas emissions driving global warming when they are burned for transport, heating, power and industry - is not happening fast enough.

Increasing demand for energy and new fossil fuel infrastructure being built have led to still rising emissions, the CAT warns.

It finds that, with the policies on tackling climate change and driving clean energy and technologies that governments have in place today, the world is on track for 2.7C of warming by 2100 - up slightly from 2.6C last year and the same as 2021 to 2024.

If governments met 2030 and 2035 targets to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement - a global treaty that aims to curb warming to 1.5C to avoid the most dangerous impacts of climate change - it would still be 2.6C, the same as last year.

Under an optimistic scenario, in which countries meet all of their pledges and targets to cut emissions to zero overall, the world would see warming of 1.9C by the end of the century.

The Paris target - of 1.5C - is set to be exceeded in the next few years, and experts warn there is a need to act to limit the size and duration of the overshoot, and bring temperatures down to below 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100.

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